(a) Evolution of mortgages
- Annual evolution of mortgages, Spain.
- Left axis (bars): annual number of mortgages approved and released.
- Right axis (line): average annual mortgage amount, in euros.
- Real credit movement (mortgages), in percentage: blue = real credit expansion; orange = real credit contraction.
- Ratio between mortgages and home sales: if the ratio is (x), it means there a (x) mortgages per each (1) home sale.
Interpretation and observations
Credit correlates positively with the evolution of housing prices. Some observations:
- Observation A: mortgage approvals were far above the upper limit in the 2000s.
- Observation B: the average mortgage amount follows an uptrend.
- Observation C: the real credit movement allow us to see the debt cycles.
- Observation D: the ratio Mortgages/Sales hints the formation of real estate bubbles.
(b) Euribor and interest rates
- Euribor 1-year average rate and average mortgage rate, Spain.
- Nominal price and Interest rate: percentage of annual change compared to the previous year.
- Left axis (bars): interest rate (Mibor/Euribor).
- Right axis (line): nominal price.
- Mortgages constituted according to type of interest rate (%): fixed or variable.
Interpretation and observations
The Euro Interbank Offered Rate (Euribor) plays a key role in the mortgage market. An increase of the Euribor implies an increase in mortgage rates, which if sustained for longer periods, constraints the debt capacity for borrowers, resulting in general price stagnation due to the lack of new money flowing into the system, or even price regression if there is an excessive amount of credit accumulated (credit bubble).
- Housing prices, from 1985 to 2006, according to Sociedad de Tasación (Access to data is under request, but can be seen in the linked publication): Publication, Link
- Housing prices, from 2007 onwards, according to the notaries (Grupo 5 > Acto 501 - Compraventa inmuebles > Inmuebles en fincas urbanas, viviendas): Link
- Home sales, from 2003 to 2006, have been extrapolated using the approved mortgages: Link
- Home sales, from 2007 onwards (Results > Annual > Dwellings transferred by type of acquisition > Sales): Link
- Mortgages, from 1995 to 2002, according to "El mercado de la vivienda en España: una década prodigiosa (1995-2005)", by Isabel Nóvoa Arechaga and Pedro López Suárez, tabla 13 (mortgage releases from this period have been extrapolated using the approved mortgages): Publication
- Mortgages, from 2003 onwards (Results > Annual > National results and by Autonomous Community > Mortgages constituted, over the total properties, by nature of the property > Dwellings): Link
- Inflation data (Table: average inflation Spain (CPI) - by year): Link
- Euribor 1-year rate averaged, from 2002 onwards (Euribor 1-year - Historical close, average of observations through period ): Link
- Mibor 1-year rate averaged, from 1979 to 2001 (Cuadro 19.1 del BE - Tipo de interés. De referencia. Oficiales. Mercado hipotecario. Interbancario. Mibor a 1 año): Link
- Average mortgage rate (Results > Annual > National indicators > Average interest rate of mortgages constituted > Viviendas + Total): Link
- Mortgages constituted according to interest rate (Results > Annual > National indicators > Mortgages constituted according to interest rate > Viviendas + Fijo & Variable): Link, Bank of Spain