(a) Annual evolution of home sales
- Purchasing-age population (PAP): home sales (bars); population between 25 and 50 years old (dotted lines); and housing inheritances (purple line).
- PAP disaggregated: home sales (bars); population of 30, 40 and 50 years old (colored dotted lines); and housing inheritances (purple bars).
Interpretation and observations
The PAP housing index draws two ceilings based on demographics. The higher one assumes that everyone at some point will buy a house individually, and the lower one assumes that everyone at some point will buy a house as a couple.
- If the number of sales exceeds the upper limit, it implies that the situation corresponds to a bubble, e.g. 2004 - 2007.
- If the number of sales is below the lower limit, it implies that there is a depression, e.g. 2011 - 2014.
- If the number of sales is in between the two ceilings, it implies that the market is near an optimal zone.
(b) Quarterly evolution of home sales
- Left axis (bars): total number of home sales in each quarter.
- Right axis (line): housing price index.
Interpretation and observations
The color indicates whether the number of sales is lower than the previous quarter (red) or higher (green). The black line represents the HPI price. Some observations:
- Observation A: Between 2007 and 2013 the number of sales followed a downward trend, chaining 5 red bars in a row.
- Observation B: In 2020 sales plummet as a result of the Covid-19 lockdowns.
- Observation C: Between 2014 and 2021 the trend changes and the number of sales rises, chaining 3 consecutive green bars in 2018, and 5 in 2021.
Data sources
- Population and projections according to INE (range of used population was that between 25 and 50 years old > Data used is from January 1st of the current year): Population consolidated, Population projection
- Home sales (Results > Annual > Dwellings transferred by type of acquisition > Sales): Link
- Housing Price Index: Link